Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently 2 to 3 cents lower after ending Thursday with most contracts 1 to 2 cents higher. NASS cut their their national corn yield projection by 1.8 bpa to to 178.9 bpa. That brought the US 18/19 production to 14.626 bbu, down 152 mbu from last month. US ending stocks were trimmed by 77 mbu to 1.736 bbu due to feed use and export reductions. On the world side of things, USDA re-calculated the changes to Chinese corn production and stocks all the way back to 07/08. The Chinese government had revised their historical data earlier in the week after “technical issues” back in October. The USDA revisions showed 18/19 world carryout at 307.51 MMT, up 148.16 MMT from last month! Chinese ending stocks were revised 148.99 MMT higher at 207.49 MMT. Stocks outside of China were trimmed by 0.83 MMT. US corn exports in the week ending Nov 1 totaled 1.355 MMT, with accumulated exports since September 1 now 10.601 MMT, 85.02% larger than the same week a year ago.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents lower this morning. They saw just fractional losses in most contracts on Thursday, despite pressure from a larger US carryout projection. Front month soy meal was down $1.90/ton, with soy oil 18 points lower. The NASS Crop Production report cut estimated US soybean yield 1 bushel to at 52.1 bpa. The US production total was trimmed by 90 mbu to 4.6 bbu. US ending stocks rose to 955 mbu, however. USDA had to cut projected US exports by 160 million bushels because it just isn’t happening. Export commitments for soybeans are now 30.6% lower than this time last year. World ending stocks saw a 2.04 MMT increase to 112.08 MMT due to old crop revisions. USDA also reported that 388,422 MT of 18/19 soybeans were sold for export in the week of 11/1 in their weekly Export Sales report. That was slightly lower than last week and shy of expectations, with last year’s sales for the same week 66.5% larger. Soy meal sales were shown at 255,987 MT, with soy oil at 22,436 MT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are trading 2 to 6 cents lower this morning, with KC HRW the weakest and MPLS the firmest. They were fractionally lower in MPLS on Thursday, with CBT down 2-3 and KC 3 to 5 cents lower in the front months. Thursday morning’s monthly updates from the USDA showed US wheat 18/19 carryout at 949 mbu, down 7 mbu from October. That was caused by higher seed usage, as USDA left their export projection at 1.025 bbu. There were minor 1-2 million bushel adjustments to the wheat by class exports. World ending stocks for wheat were up 6.53 MMT to 266.71 MMT on historical revisions made mainly to China. Australian production was cut by 1 MMT to 17.5 MMT. US wheat export sales during the week of November 1 exceeded analysts’ expectations at 661,241 MT, up 13.5% from last week. Total export commitments are improving and are now only 15.5% lower than this week in 2017.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures posted 25 to 55 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures were up 25 to 45 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was down 65 cents on November 7 at $152.23. Wholesale boxed beef prices were sharply lower on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $2.15 @ $216.07, with Select $2.66 lower at $199.11. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter WTD at 473,000 head. That is 1,000 above the previous week and 5,000 head larger than the same day last year. USDA reported a few $180 dressed sales in the WCB, but most cash trade won’t develop until later today. The USDA S&D table showed 2018 beef production down 30 million pounds at 26.914 billion. Beef production for 2019 was 100 million lower at 27.810 billion pounds on lower first quarter production.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were steady to $1.10 lower in most contracts on Thursday, with nearby Dec up a dime. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 28 cents from the previous day @ $63.72 on November 6. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.18 @ $71.57 in the Thursday afternoon report. The national base hog carcass value was $1.18 lower this afternoon, with a weighted average of 54.31. There are a lot of minuses in those sentences. FI hog slaughter was estimated 1.898 million head through Thursday by the USDA, with Wednesday’s slaughter revised down to 472,000 head. That is still up 15,000 from the previous week and 52,000 higher than the same week in 2017. USDA Pork production for 2018 was reduced 105 million pounds to 26.32 billion on lower fourth quarter production. Their production estimate for 2019 was down 95 million pounds to 27.715 billion.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 10 to 18 points lower this morning. They retreated from their highs to close the Thursday session with most contracts 3 to 11 points lower and Dec up 5. The US dollar index was sharply higher on the day. NASS trimmed US cotton production to 18.408 million bales, down 1.355 million from October. The national yield projection was cut by 49 lbs to 852 lb/ac. That tightened the US carryout number to 4.3 million bales (down 700,00 bales). USDA trimmed the export projection by 500,000 bales to 15 million on Thursday. World ending stocks were down 1.84 million bales to 72.61 million, with the help of a smaller Indian crop @ 28 million bales as well as the tighter US stocks. Total US cotton export commitments are now just 8.6% larger than this week last year. The USDA weekly AWP was updated 69.86 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 130 points from last week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

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