Housing Data Weak

June 16, 2017


Stock index futures were higher in the overnight trade with Dow Jones futures advancing to a new record high. However, some of the early gains were given back on news that U.S. housing starts fell for a third consecutive month in May.

Housing starts dropped 5.5% in May from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.092 million. The median estimate was 1.22 million. Residential building permits, fell 4.9% to an annual pace of 1.168 million last month, which compares to expectations of 1.249 million. Economists had expected a 3.4% increase for starts and a .8% gain for permits.

The 9:00 central time June University of Michigan Sentiment index is anticipated to be 97.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher.


The U.S. dollar is lower after the weaker than anticipated U.S. housing data.

In the longer term we expect the U.S. dollar will underperform.

The euro currency advanced on news that new car sales in the European Union increased 7.6% in May, as most countries in the region returned to a gain after last month's decline. In addition, new car registrations, increased to 1.39 million in the European Union in May from 1.29 million in the same month a year ago.

The currency of the euro zone is higher despite news that wages in the euro zone increased at a slower rate in the first quarter, in spite of gains in economic growth, including the unemployment rate that has declined to an eight year low.

The Bank of Japan held its monetary policy meeting today and said it would maintain its aggressive monetary stimulus, as expected.

Higher crude oil prices supported the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.


Futures firmed when the weaker than anticipated U.S. housing report was released.

Also, there was some support on news that China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased for a third consecutive month in April.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan will speak at 11:45.

The probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 13 meeting is 46%, which compares to 50% yesterday.


September 17 S&P 500

Support 2427.00 Resistance 2441.00

September 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 96.810 Resistance 97.350

September 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.11830 Resistance 1.12500

September 17 Japanese Yen

Support .90010 Resistance .90660

September 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .75350 Resistance .75770

September 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7557 Resistance .7628

September 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 155^0 Resistance 155^24

August 17 Gold

Support 1249.0Resistance 1263.0

July 17 Copper

Support 2.5500 Resistance 2.5850

August 17 Crude Oil

Support 44.31 Resistance 45.55

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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