Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed 2 to 2 1/2 cents in the green on Thursday. The drought monitor shows parts of the Corn Belt with abnormal dryness, through Tuesday June 13. Rains expected across the more eastern areas, will likely reverse part of that. The USDA reported 600,740 MT for old crop export bookings, within expectations and 72.33% larger than last week. There were just 13,510 MT shown for 2017/18 sales. So far this year, new crop outstanding sales are 30.39% behind last year, as high South American production has hindered demand for2017/18 US corn. Weekly shipments for the week of June 8 were down 18.3% on the week to 992,266 MT, with total exports YTD 40.06% above last year. Satellite imagery company Planalytics estimates 2017 US corn yield at 166.9 bu/ac, down 0.5 bu/ac from their previous estimate. China was reported to have sold only 98,293 MT of the nearly 1.385 MMT of 2013 corn offered at an auction of state reserves on Thursday.

Jul 17 Corn closed at $3.79 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.87 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.97 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn closed at $4.06 3/4, up 2 cents

Soybean futures finished with gains of mostly 3 to 5 cents on Thursday. Soy meal was down $1.20 in the front month, with July 17 soy oil 65 points higher. Planalytics lowered their 2017 US soybean yield estimate 0.2 bu/ac to 46.8 bu/ac. This morning’s NOPA reports showed May crush blowing by estimates at 149.246 million bushels, which is 7.27% larger than April and 4.67% below May 2016. Soy oil stocks hit expectations on the nose at 1.749 billion pounds, 1.37% above April but 12.27% lower than last May. Old crop export sales for the week of June 8 came in at 340,249 MT, well above last week, but still lagging last year’s pace. New crop sales picked up this week, at 314,033 MT, but are still a cumulative 38.1% behind last year. China did indicate that a buying mission (pretty much an annual event) would be coming to the US in mid-July. US exports for that week were improved over last week at 489,028 MT. Soy meal sales were reported at 166,787 MT for 16/17 and 110,444 MT for 17/18, with exports at 215,737 MT. Soy oil sales were at 30,293 MT for 2016/17, as this week’s report showed shipments of 16,763 MT.

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.34 3/4, up 3 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.38 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.40, up 3 3/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.51 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $300.60, down $1.20,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil closed at $32.74, up $0.65

Wheat futures came back to settle with gains in most all contracts. CBT was the strongest, with MPLS improving over losses earlier in the session. The weekly drought monitor showed most of the Dakotas experiencing some sort of dryness. Wheat export sales for the week of June 8 for the 2017/18 marketing year were at 373,368 MT, just under half of what was reported for this week last year. Weekly shipments came in at 624,448 MT, 10.6% over last week’s total exports. Japan purchased 162,286 MT of wheat from Australia, Canada, and the US in their weekly tender on Thursday. Of the total, 98,536 MT was US origin. Analysts from Strategie Grains estimate 2017 soft wheat production in the EU at 141.6 MMT, 1.1 MMT lower from their previous projection. They also show an estimated 24.4 MMT for exports, 2.6 MMT less than their last estimate.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.53 3/4, up 10 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.65 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.32 1/2, up 5 cents

Live cattle futures ended Thursday trade with losses of 10 cents to $2 in the nearby contracts, as back months were higher. Feeder cattle futures showed gains of 12.5 to 95 cents in most contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.19 on June 14 at $152.73. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the afternoon report, with choice boxes $1.29 lower at $249.74. Select was down 13 cents, with an average of $220.53. Cash cattle exchanged hands at around $130 in NE on Wednesday. There were a few sales of $128 in the South on Thursday. Estimated FI cattle slaughter through Thursday was 467,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and 24,000 head more than the same week a year ago. The export sales report showed 8,509 MT for 2017 sales, a drop of 38.4% from last week and 43.8% lower than a year ago. Export shipments were 17.1% above last week at 14,502 MT. The first official shipment of US beef is making its way to China via air.

Jun 17 Cattle closed at $122.500, down $2.000,

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $117.500, down $0.375,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $114.700, down $0.100,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.075, up $0.950

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.400, up $0.700

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.850, up $0.750

Lean hog futures posted losses of 52.5 cents to $1.475 on Thursday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/13 was up another 94 cents to $82.10. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 17 cents lower in the afternoon report, with a weighted average of $94.90. The loin, picnic, and rib primal cuts were all lower. The national base hog carcass price was $1.60 higher with a weighted average of $83.87 in the afternoon report. Prices ranged from $78.00-$86.00. Through Thursday, estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1,710,000 head, 44,000 fewer than last week and 5,000 head above last year. The USDA reported just 12,339 MT for weekly pork export sales, a marketing year low that was 7% behind last year’s figure for the same week. Exports picked up to 21,007 MT, a 5.9% increase over last week.

Jul 17 Hogs closed at $82.050, down $0.525,

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $78.925, down $1.475

Oct 17 Hogs closed at $67.200, down $1.375

Cotton futures lost 119 to 170 points in most contracts on Thursday. Pressure came from a sharply higher dollar, as it was up 542 points. Upland cotton old crop export sales for the week of June 8 were a disappointing 69,417 RB, 16.05% behind last week but 8.35% larger than last year. New crop sales were well above last year at 197,598 RB. Shipments of upland cotton were down 26.2% wk/wk at 233,257 RB, but rose 65.66% over last year. The new AWP for this week is 67.31 cents/lb through next Friday, down 72 points from the previous week.The Cotlook A index for June 14 was 50 points lower at 85.50 cents/lb. China sold just 14,200 MT of the 29,900 MT of cotton offered at an auction of state reserves on Thursday.

Jul 17 Cotton closed at 71.910, down 159 points,

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 71.220, down 170 points

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 69.440, down 158 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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